World hashish gross sales anticipated to double to US$51B by 2025

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“Canna-curious” consumers who have never tried weed are expected to play a major role in market growth.

Author of the article:

Angela Stelmakowich

Publication date:

16.09.202116 minutes agoRead for 5 minutes Join the conversation It is important to remember that “illicit sales still make up the bulk of consumer demand”. / Photo by Marvin Samuel Tolentino Pineda / iStock / Getty Images Plus

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Increased social acceptance and expanded legal access are expected to double global cannabis sales by 2025, predicts a new report from New Frontier Data of Washington, DC.

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The data, analytics, and technology company partnered with TSRGrow, FTI Consulting, and SoRSE to publish the Global Cannabis Report: Growth & Trends Through 2025, which includes 23 regulated markets for medical cannabis and six markets for adult use in 24 Countries. It also includes an analysis of annual global cannabis demand based on usage rate, price and consumer spending data from legal and illegal markets in all 217 countries.

Turning to high-THC cannabis, a statement from New Frontier Data found that sales to patients and adults through regulated sources totaled $ 23.7 billion ($ 29.9 billion) in 2020 with the United States making up the lion’s share at $ 20.3 billion ($ 25.6 billion). However, sales in the currently legal markets are projected to exceed $ 50 billion ($ 63 billion) by 2025.

  1. According to the OCS 2020/2021 report, retail stores and the OCS sold 99,100,000 grams of legal recreational cannabis valued at approximately $ 840,100,000, up 182 percent year over year in volume.

    Ontario now has 1,000 cannabis retail stores

  2. The average dried flower price per gram on the provincial retailer's website for the quarter April 1 through June 30 was $ 7.05.  Andrii Sedykh / Getty Images Plus

    Average legal cannabis price lower than weed from illegal mail order sites: OCS

  3. Nationwide, retail cannabis sales in 2020 were more than $ 2.6 billion, up 117 percent from 2019 when sales were $ 1.2 billion.  / PHOTO BY RICHARD VOGEL / AP FOTO

    Canada has more than $ 2.6 billion in retail cannabis sales in 2020

The push to this new level is expected due to strong growth in the largest and most dominant markets, namely the US and Canada, the report said.

Spain, which is not included in the report data, could potentially move into third place in sales, “should it be fully legalized and regulated,” suggests the report. Sales through clubs in Spain were estimated to be $ 431 million ($ 543 million) in 2019, it said, adding that this was prior to the onset of COVID-19.

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Of the countries analyzed, a graph in the report states that, after the USA and Canada, the next five largest legal cannabis markets in 2020 are Germany with US $ 206.3 million (US $ 260 million), Israel with US $ 158.9 million $ 200 million and Puerto Rico were $ 145.5 million ($ 183 million), the Netherlands was $ 108.4 million ($ 137 million), and Australia was 89 . $ 6 million ($ 113 million).

In terms of global consumer spending on legal and illicit high-THC cannabis, the report finds that the expansion of legal country markets and increasing social acceptance of the plant’s therapeutic value drove the world $ 415 billion. US dollars) in 2020 will drive up to US $ 496 billion (US $ 625 billion) in 2025. Added to this is the influence of “industrial potential as a catalyst for economic growth”.

In 2020, legal domestic adult cannabis sales were about $ 11.2 billion ($ 14.1 billion) in the U.S., approximately $ 2.1 billion ($ 2.6 billion) in Canada, $ 103.5 million ($ 130.4 million) in the Netherlands and $ 3.5 million ($ 4.4 million) in Uruguay.

In terms of recreational cannabis use among adults, Canada was in the top five – 15.7 percent – of the countries analyzed in the report last year.

In 2020, legal domestic sales of adult cannabis were about $ 11.2 billion ($ 14.1 billion) in the U.S. and about $ 2.1 billion ($ 2.6 billion) ) in Canada.  / In 2020, legal domestic sales of adult cannabis were about $ 11.2 billion ($ 14.1 billion) in the U.S. and about $ 2.1 billion ($ 2.6 billion) ) in Canada. / Photo by MJ_Prototype / iStock / Getty Images Plus

The report suggests that “canna-curious” consumers who have not yet tried weed will play an essential role in market growth as social acceptance increases.

Citing the potential of canna tourism, which the report sees as a growing sub-vertical, the statement notes that “29 percent of vacationers are interested in using cannabis while on vacation”.

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“As consumer tastes and preferences evolve alongside product innovation, the pace of achieving a mature product landscape in newly legalized markets will accelerate,” suggests New Frontier Data.

“While Canada defeated the US in creating a fully legal national market, the 38 states that have legalized either medicinal or adult use have a population six times the size of Canada,” it said in the reports. The authors point out that in the next few years “the legal market opportunities in the USA alone will account for the lion’s share of global legal demand”.

As always, price can play a role. For example, in North America, “the difference between the average high price and the average low price for a gram of cannabis flower is about $ 3,” the report said.

With an average price of US $ 10 (US $ 12.60) per gram of THC-rich flower, North America is roughly in the middle of the field compared to other regions of the world. Oceania, Asia and Europe are higher while the Caribbean, Latin America and Africa are lower.

Although legal markets are evolving around the world, “we have found that regulatory structures and societal norms vary widely and that every country, region and market requires a differentiated approach in order to quantify, qualify and understand them,” Giadha DeCarcer, founder of New Frontier Data and executive chair, writes in the report.

Although cannabis remains illegal in most of the world, self-reported use rates are increasing.  / Although cannabis remains illegal in most parts of the world, self-reported use rates are increasing. / Photo by José Antonio Luque Olmedo /Getty Images

In this case, it is important to keep in mind that “illicit sales still constitute the bulk of consumer demand and that failure to consider the illicit market’s impact on a global study is an abbreviation that is likely to be too rudimentary and inaccurate projections,” notes DeCarcer.

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Although cannabis remains illegal in most parts of the world, self-reported use rates are increasing, the report said, adding that in almost every country with updated use data, these were higher than the company’s 2019 report.

“The trend towards increased use is likely to continue as science confirms that cannabis is comparatively safer than alcohol and as young adults grow up in societies where cannabis is increasingly viewed as an analogue or substitute for alcohol rather than a dangerous narcotic will. “Write the authors of the report.

For Canada, the second country around to federally legalize recreational cannabis, the country is home to some very large corporations with deep financial pockets. Canadian LPs (Licensed Producers) have agreements to export to over 20 different countries, giving the country a significant head start in the burgeoning global cannabis market, although companies in the Netherlands and Latin America are also looking to enter into global cannabis exports to establish. ”“, states the report.

“While Canada lags the US in terms of total domestic retail sales of cannabis, Canada will remain the world’s leading cannabis exporter through 2025, with LPs in over 20 countries worldwide,” the authors add.

Overall, “North America will be the engine of both the industrialization and commercialization of cannabis and the shaping of the emerging consumer culture,” concludes New Frontier Data.

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